Analyst: GTA 6’s impact on console market ‘cannot be overstated’ as Sony and Microsoft try to convince players to upgrade to next generation
GTA 6 could be the game that will force PS4 and Xbox One owners to finally switch to modern consoles, a well-known gaming industry analyst predicts.
In a tweet, Circana advisor Matt Piscatella argues that “Grand Theft Auto VI’s impact on the console market cannot be overstated,” citing a recent chart from Sony showing that even 3.5 years after the PS5’s launch, a roughly equal share of the PS5’s 97 million active users still use PS4. Sony is naturally interested in converting its user base to the new console, and this chart shows that PS5 users spend significantly more time gaming than PS4 users (2.4 billion hours per month vs. 1.4 billion hours).
Piscatella believes that people are slow to switch to the new generation of consoles because of the so-called “black hole games.” He’s likely referring to cross-platform games with huge player bases like Fortnite, Minecraft, Roblox and Call of Duty, which keep “casual” gamers from having to invest in new hardware. Simply put, Piscatella says it’s “too easy to stay on old consoles with Fortnite/Minecraft/Roblox/COD… and GTA 5.”
Analyst: GTA 6’s impact on console market ‘cannot be overstated’ as Sony and Microsoft try to convince players to upgrade to next generation
Piscatella is right that GTA 6 has the potential to change that. As an exclusive to the current generation of consoles and a sequel to the best-selling video game of all time – with no PC version announced – it could be a key driver in getting the masses of PlayStation and Xbox users to switch to PS5 and Xbox Series X.
While Piscatella specifically refers to Sony’s data, it’s safe to say the situation is similar for Xbox. The game may be a big deal for Xbox given the significant lag in Xbox Series sales.
Even if the PS5 Pro arrives this year, Piscatella doesn’t think it will make much of a difference, arguing that “the vast majority of people who will pre-order the PS5 Pro if/when it’s announced will be the same people who pre-ordered the PS5 when it was announced. Iterative consoles are always for early adopters and enthusiasts.”
While rumors of a PS5 Pro launching in the near future have been swirling, it doesn’t seem like Microsoft is planning anything similar for Xbox. According to insiders, Microsoft may focus on launching Xbox Next sooner in order to beat Sony by a year and a half.
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